Kwanan nan, Morgan Stanley Securities ya fitar da sabon rahoton "Asia Pacific Automotive Semiconductor", yana mai cewa manyan masana'antun semiconductor guda biyu, Rexa da Ansome, sun ba da umarnin yanke, kuma suna yanke umarnin gwajin guntu a cikin kwata na huɗu.
Rahoton ya ce dalilan da suka sanya babbar masana’anta ta yanke odar su ne kamar haka.
1, TSMC ta fitarwa na abin hawa semiconductor wafers a cikin uku kwata ya karu da 82% a shekara, 140% mafi girma fiye da cewa kafin annoba;
2, Rashin siyar da motocin lantarki a babban yankin kasar Sin (lissafin kashi 50% zuwa 60% na motocin lantarki na duniya) ya haifar da cikakkiyar wadatar abin hawa semiconductor, kuma yanayin yanke guda ya fara faruwa.
Zhan Jiahong, wani manazarci na Morgan Stanley semiconductor masana'antu, ya nuna cewa, bisa ga sabuwar ziyarar da post kafa aiwatar da semiconductor wafers, wasu motoci semiconductor, kamar MCU da CIS masu kaya, ciki har da Rexa Electronics da Ansomy Semiconductor, a halin yanzu yanke wasu. oda na gwajin guntu a cikin kwata na huɗu, wanda ke nuna cewa kwakwalwan kwamfuta na kera motoci sun daina aiki.
Zhan Jiahong ya ce, idan aka kwatanta yanayin kudaden shiga na na'urorin kera motoci na duniya da sauye-sauyen da ake samu na kera motoci, za a iya gano cewa, a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, CAGR na kudaden shiga na semiconductor na kera ya kai kashi 20%, yayin da abin da aka samar da kera ya kai kashi 10 kacal. %.Daga wannan yanayin, ya kamata a ce yawan samar da na'urori masu sarrafa motoci ya kamata ya faru a ƙarshen 2020 da farkon 2021. Duk da haka, abin da ya shafi yaduwar COVID-19 na duniya a wancan lokacin, sufuri ba a santsi ba ko ma an katse kayayyaki. wanda ya haifar da matsanancin ƙarancin na'urorin kera motoci da ci gaba da ƙarancin.
A halin yanzu, yayin da tasirin zirga-zirgar ababen hawa ke samun sauƙi sannu a hankali, tare da ƙaruwa mai yawa na TSMC na samar da guntun motoci a cikin kwata na uku, da raguwar buƙatun kasuwa a yankin ƙasar Sin, wanda ya kai kashi 50% zuwa 60% na duniya. tallace-tallacen motocin lantarki, na'urorin kera motoci an samar da su gabaɗaya a halin yanzu, kuma matsalar ƙarancin guntu da ta addabi masana'antar kera motoci na iya zuwa ƙarshe.
Kamar yadda muka sani, ƙarancin tsarin kwakwalwan kwamfuta bai inganta ba tun wannan shekarar.Bukatar na'urorin lantarki na mabukaci ya yi kasala, kuma samar da kwakwalwan kwamfuta na kera motoci ya yi kasa da bukatu.Manyan masana'antun guntu na kera motoci irin su Texas Instruments, Italiya Faransa Semiconductor, Infineon da NXP duk sun fitar da sigina mai ƙarfi na girma a cikin kwakwalwan kwamfuta.
Infineon, babban mai kera na'urorin sarrafa wutar lantarki na motoci, yana da ra'ayin ra'ayin mazan jiya na karancin kwakwalwan kwamfuta a nan gaba.Peter Schiefer, shugaban kamfanin ATV na duniya na sashin kasuwancinsa na kayan lantarki, ya ce tsarin tsarin na ATV har yanzu yana da ƙarfi, kuma wasu samfuran sun yi yawa.Misali, saboda ƙarancin ƙarfin samar da CMOS na OEM, samarwa da buƙatun MCU na Mota na Infineon a cikin 2023 ba zai iya komawa daidaitaccen yanayi ba.Stellantis, masana'antar kera motoci ta duniya wacce ta sami damar keɓance na dogon lokaci na Infineon Power Semiconductor, shi ma ya ce a cikin Oktoba cewa ana sa ran sarkar samar da wutar lantarki za ta kasance cikin tashin hankali har zuwa ƙarshen shekara mai zuwa.
A farkon Nuwamba, NXP, babban mai kera guntu na kera, ya ce lokacin da yake fitar da rahoton kudi na Q3 cewa saboda kudaden shiga daga kwakwalwan kera motoci sun yi adadi mai yawa, NXP ta kauce wa matsalar raguwar saurin raguwar bukatar semiconductor.Kamar masana'antun a cikin kasuwar ƙarshen motoci, NXP ta ce har yanzu akwai ƙarancin wasu samfuran a nan.Masu saka hannun jari yanzu sun damu game da tsawon lokacin da kasuwar ƙarshen keɓaɓɓiyar ke iya ba da ma'auni a ƙarƙashin faɗuwar buƙatu.
Ba da dadewa ba, bisa ga binciken Haina International Group, an rage lokacin isar da guntu a watan Oktoba da kwanaki 6, wanda shine raguwa mafi girma tun 2016, yana ƙara tabbatar da cewa buƙatar guntu tana raguwa cikin sauri.Duk da haka, Hainer ya kuma nuna cewa lokacin isar da kayan aikin Texas, wanda ke da babban fayil ɗin samfuri da jerin abokan ciniki, an rage shi da kwanaki 25 a cikin Oktoba, kuma samar da wasu guntuwar kera motoci har yanzu yana iyakance.Ana iya ganin cewa, duk da cewa ana samun raguwar karancin masana’antun sarrafa na’urori a duniya, wasu daga cikin na’urorin kera motocin nasu na cikin karanci.
Amma a yanzu, Morgan Stanley ya fito da wata sabuwar siginar kasuwa, wanda zai iya nuna cewa za a iya kawar da ainihin rashi da yanayin hauhawar farashin da ya addabi masana'antar kera motoci na dogon lokaci, kuma sabon sake zagayowar masana'antar semiconductor zai zo ƙarshe. .
——————An nakalto daga变频器世界 Fassara ta EACON inverter
Lokacin aikawa: Nuwamba-25-2022